Bill Patzert, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, created the term "Godzilla El Niño" in 2015 to describe an unusually massive weather pattern where sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above average. This mega-event triggers extreme weather, resulting in record heat, severe storms, heatwaves, floods, frosts, and droughts. This phenomenon has now become a looming concern because the upcoming event, expected to peak between November 2026 and February 2027, will rank among the most severe on record, compounding existing economic and supply chain disruptions across the region. Understanding how this climate monster operates, especially its impact on food security across the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) region, is key to protecting our future and building climate resilience.
A Godzilla El Niño is very different from a normal El Niño. Normally, winds blow warm ocean water westwards towards Asia. During a normal El Niño, those winds weaken, and ocean temperatures rise slightly, usually around 0.5 degrees Celsius above average. A Super El Niño gets even warmer, crossing the 1.5 degrees Celsius mark. However, a Godzilla El Niño is the ultimate extreme, where temperatures jump 2 degrees Celsius or more above normal for months. Driven by global warming, this extreme heat completely breaks normal wind patterns. One side of the world suffers from severe droughts, whilst the other side gets hit by catastrophic floods, deeply disrupting farming and crop cycles across the globe.
The primary threat of a Godzilla El Niño to the APT region lies in its profound impact on agricultural productivity and food security. Southeast Asian governments, food producers, and farmers are bracing themselves for higher costs as a strengthening El Niño threatens to reduce crop yields, especially staple foods like rice, sugarcane, and palm oil, at a time when they are already dealing with high energy and fertiliser prices. If this severe weather hits hard, the impact could spread through the wider regional economy. Higher food prices will affect everyday consumers and slow down economic growth in nations that rely heavily on agriculture, whilst also affecting food-importing countries like P.R. China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea.
To protect the region's food supply and livelihoods against this unstoppable climate monster, experts advise the APT region to prioritise four core policy actions.
- Elevating food security from a single-ministry concern to a national security one by involving multiple agencies through central coordination, replacing broad subsidies with targeted support for farmers and low-income households.
- Planning for multi-country trade disruptions by stress-testing and diversifying supply chains, coordinating rice import timing, and avoiding sudden export bans by surplus countries.
- Reducing dependence on imported fertilisers by scaling up local chemical and bio-fertiliser production, implementing regional stock monitoring, and aligning with regenerative agriculture.
- Deepening regional and bilateral cooperation by leveraging the APT frameworks and adapting food partnership models to attract funding for climate-resilient farming.
By moving away from acting alone and towards strong regional teamwork, the APT region can protect its farming foundation and build a resilient food supply capable of standing up to future Godzilla-level climate events.
References
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2024, May 1). El Nino exit leaves a lasting impact on Southeast Asia’s agricultural systems, stressing the need for preventive measures. https://www.fao.org/asiapacific/news/news-detail/El-Ni%C3%B1o-exit-leaves-a-lasting-impact-on-Southeast-Asia%27s-agricultural-systems-stressing-the-need-for- preventive-measures/en
Gornstein, L. (2015, July 31). Godzilla El Nino: Everything you need to know about this epic weather event (pictures). CNET. https://www.cnet.com/pictures/everything-you-need-to- know- about-the-godzilla-el-nino/
Ludher, E. K. & Teng, P. (2026, August 11). One shock too many: Why Southeast Asia’s El Nino response must be different. Reccessary. https://www.reccessary.com/en/news/why- southeast-asia-el-nino-response-must-be-different.
Met Office. (n.d.). What are El Nino and La Nina?. https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/learn- about/weather/oceans/el-nino.
See, E. (2026, July 2). El Nino may pile pressure on Asean food prices as dry weather meets fuel and fertiliser shock. The Business Times. https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/asean/el-nino-may-pile-pressure-asean- food-prices-dry-weather-meets-fuel-and-fertiliser-shock.
The Southeast Asia Desk, Widhi, E., & Qobulsyah, A. (2026, April 16). Southeast Asia braces for scorching heat, water crisis as “Godzilla” El Nino looms. The Southeast Asia Desk. https://www.thesoutheastasiadesk.com/p/southeast-asia-braces-for-scorching.
Rawipa Wongkokua*
11 September 2026
* This article is a product of the APTERR Secretariat. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the APTERR Secretariat and its APTERR members.