ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve
ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve
Bill Patzert, a scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, created the term "Godzilla El Niño" in 2015 to describe an unusually massive weather pattern where sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific rise at least 2 degrees Celsius above average. This mega-event triggers extreme weather, resulting in record heat, severe storms, heatwaves, floods, frosts, and droughts. This phenomenon has now become a looming concern because the upcoming event, expected to peak between November 2026 and February 2027, will rank among the most severe on record, compounding existing economic and supply chain disruptions across the region. Understanding how this climate monster operates, especially its impact on food security across the ASEAN Plus Three (APT) region, is key to protecting our future and building climate resilience.
The La Niña weather phenomenon, characterised by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, has been anticipated to exert its influence on weather patterns worldwide since August 2024. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the weather phenomenon known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When La Niña occurs, the weather effects are opposite to those of El Niño. Areas that experienced drought and heat during El Niño often see a shift to wetter conditions during La Niña. Conversely, regions that faced abnormal amounts of rainfall during El Niño may turn dry and experience drought-like conditions during La Niña.
*This article is one of the El Niño and La Niña series
- Final Part -
The years 2023 and 2024 have seen a dynamic interplay of El Niño and La Niña, two climatic phenomena that profound effects on weather worldwide. The ASEAN Plus Three region has been particularly susceptible to these climatic shifts. It’s essential to closely examine the potential consequences of El Niño on each member state, particularly rice which is a main staple food in the region.
*This article is one of the El Niño and La Niña series
- Part 1 -
El Niño and La Niña are two opposing natural climate patterns, which is caused by changes of the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. They both tend to pose significant impacts to agricultural production and practices, climate, livelihoods, and economy. More specifically, the phenomena affect rice cultivation in the ASEAN+3 region where rice is a staple food for millions of people. As we are powerless to stop the relentless occurrence of El Niño and La Niña, it is essential to mitigate their harmful effects.
The increased intensity of extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones, droughts, and floods has expanded disaster risks in the ASEAN Plus Three region, which subsequently threatened people's lives and livelihoods across the region. Throughout the year 2022, natural disasters frequently occurred in several countries in the region, mostly in Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam, China, and Japan, which were categorised as very high natural disaster risk countries. Afterwards, natural disasters exacerbated people’s struggles, leading to regional cooperations.
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